There's a lot of hype about podcasting — the ability to deliver audio content by subscription to a PC, iPod, or other MP3 player - and the current hype will not stand the test of time, although podcasting as a media format will prevail in the long term, according to a report from research group, Forrester.

Media companies like ABC and The Boston Globe are repackaging their content into podcasts, according to Forrester's report, Getting Real About Podcasting.  Thousands of individuals have created homebrew podcasts on topics covering the full range of human interests and a growing number of consumer brands,  are sponsoring podcasts.

The energy and enthusiasm for podcasting is infectious, but is it sustainable, asks Forrester in its report. Forrester answers the question saying podcasting will survive because it gives gives consumers on-demand control over internet radio. Thus, if the content is compelling and the experience is simple enough, consumers will listen to podcasts.

Despite the hype, however, Forrester warns that consumers will only listen to things they find valuable. Based on an analysis of MP3 player and broadband adoption, Forrester expects sustainable podcasting — listening to a podcast once a month or more — to reach 12.3 million households by 2010. But the adoption will be lumpy. Considering the adoption of other applications that have a low initial cost but require consumers to invest their time, like audio streaming and instant messaging, Forrester believes consumers' podcasting experience will unfold in three stages:

1. Enthusiastic experimentation. We are currently in the throes of phase one, in which podcasting is seen as the best thing since buttons appeared on shirts. This exuberant phase will see millions of iPod owners and other audio enthusiasts subscribe to podcasts about podcasting, mainstream programming, and niche programming.

2. Disenchanted abandonment. Consumers will quickly find that most podcasts aren't worth listening to and even the useful ones pile up unopened in the podcast corner of the hard drive. In a desk-clearing sweep, consumers will abandon most podcasts. It is in this phase that podcasting programming will divide recognisably into mass-market programming (broadcasting) and niche programming (narrowcasting).

3. Value-driven adoption. In its mature phase, podcasting will extend the reach of mass-market and niche programming to portable devices and consumers' schedules. As with any other valuable media, successful podcasting will include a healthy dose of professional content — meaning that its host is paid — and editorial control.

One of the main problems with podcasting, according to Forrester, is that anybody can do them. This makes it hard for consumers to find podcasts of value. The solution, says Forrester, is the emergence of podcast distributors that build businesses to help consumers find and subscribe to valuable podcasts. Over time, Apple and podcast distributors like AOL, GarageBand.com, MSN, Odeo, and Yahoo! will apply the same editorial skills to podcasts that media outlets like The New York Times and ABC apply to news and video content.

Forrester predicts that two podcasting business models will survive: advertising And subscriptions. The market will see podcast distributors in full action by 2008, according to Forrester.

Embedded audio advertising will support the bulk of podcasts. But podcasts also establish an online relationship with a consumer that advertisers can exploit. To minimize the impact of ad annoyance — hence ad-skipping — podcast ad formats will settle down to a promo upfront, a small number of very short ads in the middle, and a lengthier closing ad that a listener can stick around for. This format resembles what's emerging in video on-demand, another on-demand medium subject to ad-skipping concerns.

Subscriptions will support premium programming, Forrester believes, the idea being that consumers will pay something for on-demand programming that they find valuable. The biggest challenge with subscription-supported programming is rights management to keep consumers from redistributing that valuable programming: The content must be locked down using a DRM technology from Apple or Microsoft.